Severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes, are increasingly likely in parts of the Plains and Midwest starting Wednesday and could last into the weekend, if not early next week from Texas to parts of the upper Midwest.
Almost on cue as March arrived, we're setting up a rather stuck weather pattern that will bring multiple days in a row of at least some severe thunderstorms in the nation's mid-section.
(MORE:Beware Of March For Tornadoes, Especially Recently)
Severe Threat Timing
While some thunderstorms may rumble across the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys during the day, the main threat for a few severe thunderstorms is Tuesday night from parts of the Texas Panhandle and northern Oklahoma into southern Kansas and Missouri. Large hail is the main concern with these nighttime storms.
Cities: Oklahoma City, Wichita
Severe thunderstorms are most possible in the afternoon and evening from parts of northern Texas into the Ozarks. Large hail, damaging thunderstorm winds and a few tornadoes are possible.
More isolated strong to severe storms are possible as far north as the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.
Cities:Dallas, Ft. Smith
Severe thunderstorms are most possible in the afternoon and evening along a feature known as adrylinein parts of western Texas into western Oklahoma and perhaps southwestern Kansas. Hail larger than golf balls, damaging thunderstorm winds and a few tornadoes are possible.
More isolated strong to severe storms are possible as far north as the Missouri Valley of Nebraska and Iowa.
Cities:Lubbock, Amarillo, Wichita Falls
Friday's severe weather threat may be more widespread, with more numeroussupercellthunderstorms capable of tornadoes, hail and destructive winds possible from parts of Texas to Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri in the afternoon and evening.
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At least some severe thunderstorms with hail are possible as far north as southern Minnesota, southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois.
Cities:Dallas, Tulsa, Kansas City
This Weekend And Beyond
The story doesn't end, there.
We can't rule out some lingering strong to severe storms Saturday from the Ohio Valley and Appalachians to southeast Texas.
And a few isolated strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the South Sunday along and near a sagging and stalling frontal boundary.
Additional strong to severe storms are expected early next week as a strong cold front slices into the central U.S. as a strong upper-level low pressure system over northern Mexico finally gets kicked into the Plains.
Check back with us at weather.com for updates to this forecast.
(MAPS:7-Day US Forecast)
How Much Rain?
Rainfall is expected to be heavy at times with these storms, and several areas will receive multiple days of heavy rain even before the severe weather threat. The Weather Prediction Center has issued level 1 out of 4 risks for heavy rainfall for Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday across parts of the Southern Plains and the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Rainfall of 1-3 inches is possible with isolated higher totals where the heaviest storms train over the same locations.
Soaking A Drought
These parts of the country are very much in need of rainfall. Drought persists across much of the South, and the reason is actually fairly straightforward.
We have been under a La Niña this winter, which causes some significant impacts to our weather.
(MORE:La Niña Is Fading)
A La Niña occurs when trade winds moving from east to west across the Equator over the Pacific Ocean ramp up, pushing warm water to the Western Pacific. This forces cooler water to rise to the surface across the eastern region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
This simple change has a drastic impact on the weather around the world and is amplified in the winter.
In a typical La Niña winter, the jet stream is typically forced further north, leaving the South warmer and drier. That pattern sends most of the precipitation and cooler temperatures to the north.
Rob Shackelfordis a meteorologist and climate scientist at weather.com. He received his undergraduate and master's degrees from the University of Georgia studying meteorology and experimenting with alternative hurricane forecasting tools.